Atrios, in his pony watch series, has a new low for George Bush: least popular President ever. 71% of pollees disapprove of Bush now, which is kind of remarkable if you think about it in psychological terms. Basically, the concept of cognitive dissonance and rationalization would say that people usually don’t admit that they were in error so much as they rationalize how they were right all along. Bush got enough votes to win, and we can expect that people who voted for Bush, instead of saying, “Damn, I fucked up,” are going to say things, well, like right wing nuts say all the time. Things like: History will vindicate Bush. Iraq is going great! The economy isn’t depressed, that’s just the liberal media telling lies. Etc. But as Bush’s polls slip, we can expect a lot of people are having serious moments of reckoning, which are never easy. It’s kind of amazing, if you think about it.
That, or they’re finding some sort of cheat to explain why they weren’t wrong. This is probably likely for a good number of Bush voters and explains why we should not assume that it will be so easy to beat McCain. I’ve seen hints of this in some conservative writings, and suspect it’s much more widespread in the non-pundit conservative community. Basically, it amounts to telling yourself that Bush isn’t a real conservative, that he lied to you and that you were completely right but just working on bad information. Which makes it real easy to justify voting for McCain, because you just have to tell yourself that he’s the straight shooter, going to be the things that Bush promised to be, and tah-dah! Will show that you were right about that conservatism stuff all along.
We need a smackdown win that’s impossible to steal. I just don’t see it happening. If it does, it won’t be without a massive fight.
29 Responses to “Bush’s low popularity and McCain”
Leave a comment
Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>
I’m not sure your conclusion is exactly right, since not everybody votes. It could still very well be that the people who actually got off their asses to vote for the guy still stand by their decision.
The “he wasn’t a real conservative” thing is exactly right though, and we’re already seeing that happen.
By the time this election is over we’re going to know so much trivial but temporarily “important” stuff about Obama, we’ll be able to name each of the pimples on his ass.
It’s going to be a long year…
Maybe Dana can give us a glimpse into the mind of the Koolaiderati…
Dicko, they ask you if you vote/voted on most poll calls.
I remain optimistic about this election if only because of the record-breaking Democratic turnout, and also because I have enough shreds of faith left in this country that after eight years of Bush we’d have enough sense not to go in for basically the same exact bullshit all over again. 2004 was depressing as hell but I don’t think the Republicans will find that fear mongering and homobigoting will make for such a winning formula this time around. McCain’s got the press on his side in a big way, but so did Bush for a long time, and more and more people are, as Amanda said, coming to reckon with just what a mistake he was, perhaps giving the lie to the familiar media branding and so undercutting the Republicans’ greatest asset. I do think Obama’s blackness and Clinton’s woman-ness are definitely electoral handicaps, but their successful candidacy (Obama’s in particular) shows just how much less conservative this country has gotten under Bush and that there strong desire for something different, which is something McCain doesn’t and could never hope to represent. I’m pretty confident that next year they’ll be swearing in President Obama.
I wish I could be optimistic. I know lots of Republicans and people who tend to vote that way even though they say they aren’t Republicans. Some are even the few remaining people who approve of Bush.
Not a single one is thinking of jumping ship. McCain’s their man.
They’re not voting for a [insert Obama insult] and Bill needs to control that woman of his. In fact, he will be “the real” president if she’s elected.
I had a sinking feeling in 2004 and called it for Bush once Kerry was nominated. I’m beginning to get a little vertigo about this one.
After the last gathering, I’ve decided I cannot spend any time whatsoever with my extended family between now and November.
It is a certainty that the Chimpromised MSM will do everything in their power to get McCavein elected, but there’s cause for hope; they did the same thing in 2006, when they basically adopted Der Rovesmarschall’s “I’ve got the numbers” chant. It didn’t work that time, and it may not work this time either. Things could be a lot better than we think they are.
Minor point, but I’m going to keep screaming about it, George Bush the younger never won an election. The american people never voted this asshole into office. He cheated and stole his way through two elections.
Please tell me somebody else here saw the CSPAN senate testimony of the Die Bold employee who said he was directly asked by his boss to code their voting machine software so they could flip the vote 49/51. Because I saw that shit live on TV, and yet it’s like it never happened.
I’m not optimistic at all. I think a combination of the extra-long primary season and the media’s pro-GOP coverage is going to keep the Democrats out of the White House by hook or by crook.
On the semi-bright side, I expect the Dems to get a veto-proof majority in both houses of Congress, and that McCain will start out with piss-poor approval ratings that will probably never go up. Unfortunately, I think the Dems will also buy into the media’s spin and never, ever speak up against the Popular Reaganesque Maverick War Hero President Who A Straight Talker And Is Beloved By All. :/
It’s not too late to make it a smackdown. This week I was making calls for Planned Parenthood to tell people that McCain is anti-choice because most people don’t know. It was a national campaign.
Call your local Democrats, Planned Parenthood, ACLU, Sierra Club, your union, League of Women Voters etc. All these organizations are going to be doing voter registration drives, literature dropping, phone banking, door knocking, and get out the vote this year.
We can do this. We just have to keep pounding the pavement, shoe leather and elbow grease etc.
That’s a good point, Amanda. One of the most disturbing statistics for me this election season is the fact that a huge majority disapproves of the job Bush is doing yet around 50% of the country would vote for McCain, and thus keep doing what Bush has been doing. I’ve been thinking it was stupidity that explained this, but cognitive dissonance works well too.
I think we need to pound the fact that “Straight Shooter” flip flops fairly often and, worst of all, doesn’t give a shit about the troops.
Not just the “10,000 years in Iraq” quotes, but the fact that he’s voting against the GI Bill b/c it’s too expensive to spend money on the average 4 year enlistee who is dying in Iraq. (He’s on board with incentives for life-time military careerists.)
His latest “straight shooting” lie is that the other side of the aisle isn’t willing to talk compromise. Jim Webb called him out and said not only have Demsreached out to McCain, but that Webb’s talked to McCain personally to try to get him to endorse the bill.
Supporting the troops my ass.
I know the 30%ers don’t care about facts, but not all conservatives are stupid.
The 71% disapproval is stunning but understates the true magnitude of the Bush Fuck-Up. These folks have one talent — they can manipulate public opinion to their ends. They have turned an enormous chunk of the federal government into a public relations arm of the Republican party for the sole purpose of making themselves look good. Result: 71% disapproval.
What would that 71% number be without that enormous thumb on the scale?
When I saw those approval ratings posted last night my first thought is “wow, it says a lot about American complacency that his ass is still warming the chair in the oval office.”
Then I watched a rerun of Futurama.
And now they are going to claim that McCain is a true conservative? When just a few months ago they were saying that he was a closet-liberal and that Romney was the only true conservative in the running? Can a Republithug ever open their mouth without lying?
“And now they are going to claim that McCain is a true conservative? When just a few months ago they were saying that he was a closet-liberal and that Romney was the only true conservative in the running?”
The current definition of “conservative” is very malleable, and depends entirely on what the people at the top need it to be at any given moment.
Any connection “conservative” once had to a word in the dictionary was severed long ago…
“Can a Republithug ever open their mouth without lying?”
With Reichwing pols, it doesn’t seem likely.
There are plenty of Republicans who don’t seem to realize that their beliefs no longer have a place in the “modern” Republican party. Somehow they seem to have missed the takeover of the Party by alien space pods (or incubi, or whatever the hell Karl Rove and Tom Delay are)…
I was born and raised a Republican (I’ve been in recovery for the last 2 decades), and I seriously doubt there are more than a handful of real Republican politicians left in the whole country…
As I’ve said in other threads, the other fascinating thing about this election so far is that no one seems to be listening to the media. The media was blindsided by the Democratic victory in 2006, and I think they’re going to be blindsided again in November.
I’d be really interested in seeing a poll that simply asked “Who did you vote for in the 2004 presidential election?”
I suspect a good percentage of people who voted for Bush would simply lie. I bet fewer than 40 percent would even admit voting for him now.
But I’m very optimistec about the 08 election. Look at the generic polls where people are asked which party they identify with. Democrats have a 15 percent advantage and among voters 18-29 years old its much wider - I think I saw 58% to 33% yesterday. That bodes well for the future of the party.
And once people see Obama and McCain on the same stage - side by side - who do you think will inspire them. Obama’s got a pretty easy hurdle to cross.
The only attack on him that has worked is to suggest that he doesn’t love America. It’s so stupid on its face that Obama should be able to put that fear to rest by November.
Enough rambling.
When will they turn W into a head-in-a-jar? I was hoping for it in Bender’s Big Score, but no luck.
Neat how the same people can be furious that she was ‘the real’ president last time now believe he would be ‘the real’ president. Bush hasn’t ever been a ‘real’ president. I think I would like one of those elusive critters to actually occupy the WH one of these days.
One thing to remember is that, for those for whom Bush was a hero, it’s all-but impossible for them to change their minds. Those to whom Bush was just a good man can have second thoughts.
Giving up a hero means giving up all those good thoughts you had about him, and feeling ashamed of yourself for having felt that good about him, and maybe even admitting that you were wrong about other people (”shit, I called liberals *traitors* for opposing this disaster!”)
You do need a smackdown, but keep in mind that *no* smackdown is going to work on the person who proudly refuses to accept the LiberalAttackMachine’s nastiness against the Noble GeorgeW. And nothing is going to convince the pundits until people start talking enough about it.
Herm. What you need is a set of good jokes. That will do more than a thousand cogent arguments.
“Giving up a hero means giving up all those good thoughts you had about him, and feeling ashamed of yourself for having felt that good about him, and maybe even admitting that you were wrong about other people (”shit, I called liberals *traitors* for opposing this disaster!”)”
John Cole at Balloon Juice is one of the very few public figures who renounced his support of GWB. And for that I have (at least some) respect.
“And nothing is going to convince the pundits until people start talking enough about it.”
The pundits really only listen to each other. People are already fed up with Bushism, but it goes unremarked among the Villigers.
Until Drudge, or Broder, or Friedman, etc. flip, the current narative will continue on, diverging more and more from reality.
And like many chaotic systems (chaos theory), when it flips it will be quick and more or less completely.
And those of us who experienced war with Eastasia before the change, will be quickly made to understand that we are at war with Eurasia, and always have been…
The D-controlled Congress has disapproval ratings that are neck-and-neck with Bush’s. Does that make them the least popular Congress ever?
Are voters now suffering cognitive dissonance and rationalization for having voted Democrat?
MikeEss:
But they will listen to the jokes, if people start making them.
So, this woman named Awlin decided to build a nursery, and sell plants. Problem was, every time the heavy rains came, too many of her decorative plants died. She racked her brain figuring out what to do, and finally started selling decorative hedges instead of trees. After all, she figured, (Draw out the n in “when”) when Awlin’s floods, Bush don’t do nothing.
(Probably not funny. But if enough people found it amusing, and it spread, it’d have more power than all the arguments in the world.)
Here’s an imitation of George Bush in a crisis:
(Deer in headlights… then turn to imaginary friend) “Condi, do you remember Dick’s cell phone number?”
Heh. This one’s my favorite:
Q: What does Bush think of Roe vs. Wade?
A: He doesn’t care how you get out of New Orleans.
The problem with this meme is that it only makes sense if you refuse (or don’t know how) to explain what the phrase “I disapprove of Congress” is actually supposed to mean in practical terms. That’s something that is trivially easy to do for the presidency.
actually, captain mctrollpants, some of us dems are neither rationalizing nor dissonant, but just pissed that our congressfolk are so spineless.
i dunno. maybe we just do less of the blind hero-worship thing. (ya think?)
www.ballstocongress.com
Can a Republithug ever open their mouth without lying?
When you renounce reality, there’s no need to tell the truth.
OMG, Sarah; I hadn’t heard that one!
I can’t wait for the McCain, Romney ticket.
The two of them will together will follow the path set forth by President George W. Bush.
That is why President Bush is going to Utah May 28th to raise money for McCain.
He knows that he can’t run for a third term, but McCain will stay the coarse.
God Bless The Republican Party.