After the news that Hillary Clinton wrote her campaign a check for $5 million until cash came in, I received an email from a regular reader who works for an organization dialing for dollars for Hillary, and folks of all incomes on those lists are simply tapped out:
Thought you’d be interested to know that I work for a company handling telephone fundraising for the Hillary Clinton campaign. It’s not just her big money donors who are tapped out-so are her SMALL money donors. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard “I’m sorry, I love Hillary and I’m voting for her, but I can’t give you any money right now.” Either that, or they simply aren’t answering their phones. In light of Obama’s raising 32 million over the Internet, how much you want to bet the days of fundraising for campaigns over the phone are about to be over?In an update to that email, this Blender said that after a full day of calling on the Hillary fundraising account this person received only one pledge for $25, with the rest of the responses to requests for money being “I don’t have it.”
Money is still coming in for Clinton of course, but going 0 for 3 on Saturday (Nebraska, Washington and Louisiana went decisively for Obama), is not likely to make more folks open their wallets. That would be true of any candidate without the momentum.
And these numbers from Rasmussen regarding the upcoming primaries on Tuesday probably don’t inspire confidence either:
* Maryland: Obama 57%, Clinton 31%
* Virginia: Obama 55%, Clinton 37%
Or the fact that Obama has an advantage in head-to-head with McCain.
But as we all know, polls have been all over the place this year, and many have been way off. Making predictions of any kind is foolhardy in this cycle. At this point I would think the critical issue for Clinton (aside from not being able to keep pace with Obama’s fundraising numbers) is what those superdelegates originally backing Hillary Clinton are going to do.
As an citizen outsider, if there’s anything I’ve learned about the workings of DC in my relatively short tenure blogging, it’s crystal clear when you go there is that it’s a “company town,” where power politics is the engine of its commerce. It seems like everyone lives and breathes politics to an unhealthy degree (even down to the cabbies; rides to and from the airport can be interesting); and it results in neurotic obsessing over the most minute slights, parsing every word of someone to get the angle or advantage, etc.
Bottom line: the importance of being on the “ins” with a candidate in your party who looks like they are going places is critical for your professional future is incalculable. The behavior of some of political class in this cycle reflects thinking so far afield from the lives and perspectives of average Americans that it’s no surprise DC is a mess.
The politicians, organizations, consultant class, advocacy groups and Clintonistas embedded into the establishment in DC have been waiting for the anointing, and it isn’t happening the way things were mapped out. Clinton and her backers have a lot more to lose because of her “experience,” meaning all those relationships built in the company town with those players that people thought gave them the edge.
Because of the establishment’s need for predictability, I imagine there is a certain amount of panic in the air, the worry that they have aligned themselves with a loser and they will be shut out of an Obama admin.
For instance, after the mind-blowing embarrassing comments by civil rights establishment figure and former Atlanta Mayor Andrew Young* and billionaire BET-founder Robert Johnson**, I’m sure they are not feeling very confident right now about the utility of their comments in support of Clinton.
Politics is a craven game, if erosion continues and losses pile up, there will probably be a run on the pharmacies for Tums and Xanax.
But in the end, everyone in the company town will want to spin about how they were really behind the winner. Their paychecks and access depend on it; our welfare as citizens appears to be an after-thought or by-product of those power relationships. That, of course, is part of the overall problem in Washington, regardless of party affiliation or candidate you politically hop in bed with.
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* Tastelessly quipping: “Bill is every bit as black as Barack. He’s probably gone with more black women than Barack.”
** Johnson at a SC Clinton rally bringing up Obama’s well-documented, self-admitted drug use as a teen: “I am frankly insulted that the Obama campaign would imply that we are so stupid that we would think Hillary and Bill Clinton, who have been deeply and emotionally involved in black issues since Barack Obama was doing something in the neighborhood - and I won’t say what he was doing, but he said it in the book - when they have been involved…” He later said he was “referring to Barack Obama’s time spent as a community organizer, and nothing else.”
34 Responses to “Horse race politics and ‘Company Town’ agita”
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This is my real fear about this election, which otherwise is in the bag: both Hillary and Obama will kick McCain’s ass all over the map, though Obama will do it with a bigger margin and way more coattails. There are too many DC insiders too invested in the anointing and restoration of the Clintons, and in their own hold on power, to recognize the public’s clear preference for Obama. For too long the Dem party has been characterized by self-interest masquerading as caution: these insiders are going to use the lack of majority in pledged delegates to cut a back-room deal and swing it for Hillary because she is One of Them. This will in turn generate a vast amount of resentment and feelings of betrayal among the Dem base, who already aren’t too enthusiastic about Hillary. She’ll play to the blue states plus one, win with a small margin and no coattails, and be unable to get anything done. But those insiders will maintain their stranglehold on the People’s Party, and that is what is most important to them.
Does anyone know who Ted Kennedy is supporting?
Roxanne:Obama, there was a public endorsement before Super Tuesday.
Felagund:That’s really the biggest risk here, that the insiders will divide the party in order to maintain their own power.
That said, this analysis that Pam says is probably correct. If Obama can catch and pass Clinton’s totals, (which seems likely at this juncture, considering the schedule for the next few weeks or so) you’ll probably see the super delegates starting to jump ship, sealing the deal.
Barack … hmmm. Anyone watch “Blood Diamond”? I just can’t help but think he’d further edge this country toward the kind of barbaric, failed continent depicted (most accurately) in that film …
Barack … hmmm. Anyone watch “Blood Diamond”? I just can’t help but think he’d further edge this country toward the kind of barbaric, failed continent depicted (most accurately) in that film …
/facetious
I don’t think the core DC power structure is pro-Clinton at all. Never has been. And we all know the Villagers have always hated them. Those SDs simply backed the “inevitable” candidate early.
But Pam’s larger point that the SDs will move their support isn’t off the mark. They’ll go wherever the popular wind takes them …if for no other reason than to get re-elected.
Wow, I hadn’t heard that quote by Andrew Young, who seems to have been honing his skills at pithy, offensive statements to the media in recent years.
I’ll give him this: his offensive blurb is a lot more concise and multi-layered than Robert Johnson’s.
On DC, I’ve always thought of it not as a company town, but as a court, with factions of eunuchs squabbling and scheming for the supremacy of their particular noble or group of nobles.
At least, that’s how I explain Tim Russert’s pasty, puffy face.
I’m not convinced Obama is that much more pure than Hillary. Joe Lieberman was his mentor in the Senate, and he’s defended him a few times in the past (though I haven’t heard much since the McCain support).
But Rahm Emmanuel, rat bastard representative of mine, is wholly invested in the Clintons. Didn’t even endorse Obama like the rest of the state of Illinois. He’s a bigwig with the damn DCCC and a big believer in “consensus” or rolling over to the Republicans to maintain some illusion of power.
I assume Washington is full of other Rahm-types who have either bided their time waiting for Hillary or are planning on moving back with Hillary. Obama’s rise has caught them by surprise, and not a nice surprise either.
Again, these people will work to further their own power and not the will of the people. Joe Lieberman wouldn’t be a Senator now if they had obviously pulled all their support from him when he lost the Dem primary (over 50% turnout–>that was no fringe element turning out, that was the Voice of the Nutmegs). By supporting the power structure, the party ended up with a DINO who would love to be a Rethug VP instead of Lamont who was actually interested in helping people and progressive values.
Obama will have different people, which will be good, but I’m not sure that they will be there for different reasons than Hillary’s crowd will. But as they will be new, there may be more change.
So you started out with an interesting observation about donations and how our very shaky economy may affect the race, particularly as real people are financially anxious, and you turned around and spun it into another piece of pro-Obama propaganda.
Snore.
Too bad. You almost had something there.
spun it into another piece of pro-Obama propaganda.
You see what you want to see because of how things are currently playing out, but you could change the names of those involved and the same would hold true.
For instance, a McCain win is going to upend all of the folks who bet on Romney (or any other clown in that car) because they so intensely dislike McCain. The movers and shakers dependent on access will now have to grovel and beg — and McCain knows it, and will remember that.
Even Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council and other professional “Christians” are “giving McCain a second look” now that they look like they will be on the outs.
Gosh, it’s so freaking acerbic on the tubes these days. There should be a run on the pharmacy for Tums.
The real way in which DC is a Company Town is that they have no congressional representation. That’s right, the seat of government is in a place that has no members of congress or senators. Now, meta-DC, the fabled “beltway” commuter zone in which people live and work to produce politics, is less a company town, IMHO, than NYC, which is pwned by finance, insurance, and real estate. Have two conversations with people from DC and NY. They’ll tell you two kinds of horror stories that illustrate how badly our gov’t disenfranchises people.
Having lived in both places, i don’t believe Obama would change the fundamental economic inequality, and i don’t think Clinton would change the fundamental political inequality *or* the economic inequality. It’s a least-worst situation, on that one. But it could be worse.
In amongst Gayle’s pile of crap, there’s one lil’ piece of good information - the economy is shaky and the citizens damn well know we’re in a recession, even though the word is forbidden by anyone running for office.
If campaigns really have entered an internet age of finance, depending so much more on small contributors, a squeezed economy will leave an impression and certainly have a noticeable effect in the record donations so far seen.
But Pam’s larger point that the SDs will move their support isn’t off the mark. They’ll go wherever the popular wind takes them …if for no other reason than to get re-elected.
I hope so. Clinton’s thin lead is only held because of superdelegates. If the establishment decides to ride the wind, then hopefully that margin will disappear.
Texas, baby! I cannot believe my vote matters.
Gayle, step off a bit. If Obama gets the nomination, it will be a terrible thing if he loses because people like you lost all perspective and refuse to vote, leaving us with a President who said we could be in Iraq for 1,000 years.
HRC raised over 10 million since Super Tuesday, Pam.
http://mydd.com/story/2008/2/8/13110/55964
“The Clinton campaign raised over $8.4 million online from 75,000 new donors since Super Tuesday, communications director Howard Wolfson said on a press conference call. Since February 1, the campaign has raised $10 million.
“We have closed that gap,” said Wolfson, who argued people were giving now because they know “the money is needed.”
Time
“Clinton spokesman Wolfson on conference call says her ad spending should pretty much match Obama’s going forward: “I do not anticipate he will have any significant advantage in the March 4 states.””
Try again:
HRC raised over 10 million since Super Tuesday, Pam.
http://mydd.com/story/2008/2/8/13110/55964
“The Clinton campaign raised over $8.4 million online from 75,000 new donors since Super Tuesday, communications director Howard Wolfson said on a press conference call. Since February 1, the campaign has raised $10 million.
“We have closed that gap,” said Wolfson, who argued people were giving now because they know “the money is needed.”
Time
“Clinton spokesman Wolfson on conference call says her ad spending should pretty much match Obama’s going forward: “I do not anticipate he will have any significant advantage in the March 4 states.””
Clinton’s blowing everything on the primary. She’ll have nothing left for the general. See my post at the top of the page—in her desperation to beat Obama, she’s practically campaigning for McCain.
Caren: Obama supported Lamont. And Lamont is supporting Obama.
As for insider/outsider status, Hilary got a shitload of endorsements from a number of politicians when it was thought she had no viable competition; that’s why she held and continues to hold a superdelegate lead (insofar as they are largely comprised of elected Democratic officials). She just hasn’t gotten any high-profile recent endorsements.
It’s important to remember that the people who make up the “company town” of DC actually live in…Maryland and Virginia. Who lives in DC itself? Young white hipsters; really, really rich white Republicans (there are about 1,000 of these, out of a total population of half a million); and African-Americans of all ages and incomes. Except for those Republicans, these are all Obama voters. There are relatively few middle class/middle age white people in DC–they all live out in the suburbs.
I don’t see it as campaigning for McCain, just being realistic. The Slime Machine turned Kerry the War Hero into Kerry the War Criminal Who Shot Himself For a Purple Heart; imagine what they would do to Obama. (shudder) Yeah, Obama’s received nothing but favorable press right now, but that’s going to change the instant he clinches the nomination. As the generals say “It never pays to underestimate your opponent.”
“If Obama gets the nomination, it will be a terrible thing if he loses because people like you lost all perspective and refuse to vote, leaving us with a President who said we could be in Iraq for 1,000 years.”
Don’t worry about me; worry about her:
Michelle Obama
Don’t worry about me; worry about her
Gayle, I don’t get it. That’s no different from what 90% of the Democrats I personally know are saying (the other 10% say “I’ll hold my nose and vote for her”). Granted, I live in Illinois, but still.
felagund had it right up above. Obama can win in states that Hillary can’t. And a helluva lot more Hillary supporters will bite the bullet and vote for Obama than otherwise. Because they’re better people? No, because they’re different people. Obama gets crossover votes. He gets votes from folks who normally don’t vote. Those crossover voters and usually-don’t-go-to-the-polls voters aren’t going to come out and pull the lever for Hillary. You can knash your teeth about why that shouldn’t be the case; pull a “what’s wrong with Kansas”, whatever—just recognize. That’s what will happen.
None of the candidates (Senators Clinton, Obama, McCain) excite me. What I find intersting to ponder, is what becomes of the junior Senator from New York and her husband if she loses the nomination and is not offered the VP spot. I would be very happy to see the entire Clinton establishment (Bill, Hillary, Begala, Carville, McCauliffe, Ann Lewis, Donna Brazile, Ira Magaziner, Harold Ickes, etc) just move out of the way for a new set of people!
Which is the same thing a lot of Republicans are hoping for too.
BTW, the Kennedys have been Dem powerbrokers for nearly 80 years. I don’t see any calls for them to make way for “a new set of people.”
We’ll never be rid of Ted Kennedy. Something like “A Picture of Dorian Gray” going on here. I just have assumed that the good people of Massachusetts hate the rest of the USA because they keep inflicting Ted on us term after term after term…
What I found most surprising here is that HRC is paying people to make phone calls for her. WTF? I worked the Obama campaign in my little Northern California hamlet and we had tens of thousands of volunteer callers across the state. Hell, almost 1% of the residents in our county volunteered for the campaign. Granted, we didn’t take the state, but does HRC deserve to win if she needs to pay phonebankers and Obama gets enthusiastic volunteers coming out of the wazoo? And gets far, far, more small donors?
Amanda, get yourself down to a campaign office!
Gayle is spot on. As usual. And funny enough we just see wishful thinking treated as reality.
Yes Amanda, get yourself to a campaign office. All that ass kissing has to pay off somehow.
Granted, we didn’t take the state, but does HRC deserve to win if she needs to pay phonebankers and Obama gets enthusiastic volunteers coming out of the wazoo?
====================================
My unenthusiastic vote counts exactly the same as your enthusiastic vote when we step into the voter booth. A lot more people with less enthusiasm than you will come out for the GE than came out to vote in the primaries. Their votes will count the same as your’s too.
Don’t worry about me; worry about her:
Michelle Obama
Just because the Clintons made the Obamas eat shit doesn’t mean they have to like the taste.
Bill Clinton has enthusiastically said he’d campaign for Obama, should Obama be the nominee. The fact that Michelle Obama has to “think about” supporting Hillary says more about her than it does about the Clintons.
Isopluvial,
Interesting, though I believe Ted’s part in keeping Bork off the high court has earned him the Senator’s seat as long as he wants it. If that dangerous fruitcake had joined the Supremes, we would have lost Roe twenty years ago. We may still lose it, if another Republican wins this time.
If Hillary goes back to Senate (as seems increasingly likely) then it will be up to the NY voters to see if they want to keep her there or not. One could say that her diplomatic language was a way of keeping her options open, in case she has to work with McCain when (hopefully) he gets sent back to Senate too.
BTW, does this “through out the old stuff” philosophy apply to Republicans too? Or just to Democrats?
&*^%$! “Throw” not “through.”
Throw applies to LARGE numbers of current Republicans as well as Democrats, and their staffs.
I believe in equal opportunity disposal!
Obama is going to win DC in a landslide. Not because the Village hates the Clintons — the Village does hate the Clintons, which is one of the best things about the Clintons, but the Village will be voting for John McCain in the GOP primary and probably the general election too — but rather for the reasons Roadrunner gives.
Remember, there’s a world of difference between “Washington,” home of the professional political class, and “DC,” which is basically Baltimore with better sports teams. “DC” may not get the press, but it outnumbers “Washington” handily.
Bill Clinton has enthusiastically said he’d campaign for Obama, should Obama be the nominee. The fact that Michelle Obama has to “think about” supporting Hillary says more about her than it does about the Clintons.
I call bullshit on this. Bill Clinton is the last democratically elected president. Michelle Obama is a smart, successful woman, but she isn’t an elected official or a former elected official. She doesn’t even campaign full time for her own husband. Should Sen. Clinton secure the nomination I would expect Sen. Obama to work to support her, but his wife can do whatever the hell she wants.
Plus, in the next breath Michelle Obama said “You know, everyone in this party is going to work hard for whoever the nominee is.” Way to leave that part out.
No one even remotely sane is ever run by the Republican party nor a younger Democratic challenger against Kennedy. I would vote for a semi-sane Republican just to get rid of him. Yes, I live in MA. No, I have never and will never vote for old Ted. He and the rest of the truly messed up local/regional politicains are why I am no longer a Democrat, but classified as unenrolled.