I will be on at 9:30 (via phone). The live video feed is below the fold.
***
| South Carolina Democratic Primary | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes | % |
| Barack Obama | 280,836 | 55 |
| Hillary Clinton | 134,536 | 26 |
| John Edwards | 90,486 | 18 |
| Other | 2,300 | 0 |
Key:  WinnerPrecincts: 95% | Updated: 9:13 PM ET | Source: AP |
||
9:15: Edwards is on, looking quite fatigued. He says he’s staying in after coming in third.
9:10: Obama is speaking and underscoring the need to bridge the divide in race-based politics, and of course, effecting change overall.
8:26: MSNBC reports that Caroline Kennedy will endorse Obama tomorrow in the NYT.
8:15: CNN for some reason has blowhard Bill Clinton on the air in Missouri, and he’s been on for several minutes now, looking like he’s the candidate on the campaign trail. And guess what? He’s talking about change. He’s insufferable, really, it’s reached an almost public pole-stroking embarrassment level. The question is - why is the MSM giving him so much air time?
8:00: Exit poll demographics are here (MSNBC). A few key questions asked of voters…
| Category | % Total | Clinton | Edwards | Kucinich | Obama |
| Can bring about needed change | 53 | 15 | 10 | - | 75 |
| Cares about people like me | 24 | 17 | 42 | 1 | 40 |
| Has the right experience | 15 | 83 | 9 | 1 | 7 |
| Has the best chance to win in November | 6 | 36 | 23 | 1 | 40 |
| Category | % Total | Clinton | Edwards | Kucinich | Obama |
| Ready | 77 | 22 | 15 | 0 | 62 |
| Not ready | 22 | 48 | 29 | 0 | 23 |
| Category | % Total | Clinton | Edwards | Kucinich | Obama |
| Definitely ready | 34 | 42 | 12 | 1 | 46 |
| Probably ready | 42 | 27 | 20 | 0 | 52 |
| Probably not ready | 17 | 10 | 25 | 0 | 65 |
| Definitely not ready | 6 | - | 24 | 1 | 76 |
7:25: My headline for tonight: The “first black president” flushed his wife’s support from blacks down the toilet in SC. The numbers speak for themselves. Black men: 80% Obama, 17% Clinton; black women: 82% Obama, 17% Clinton. (CNN):
Roughly 6 in 10 South Carolina Democratic primary voters said Bill Clinton’s campaigning was important in how they ultimately decided to vote, and of those voters, 48 percent went for Barack Obama while only 37 percent went for Hillary Clinton. Fourteen percent of those voters voted for John Edwards.With margins this big, Camp Hillary needs to rethink its approach on several levels, the reliance on the subtle and overt race-baiting, but also the issue of whether Southern men simply won’t vote for her. She not only lost black women, Obama did as well as she did with white men — Clinton 28%, Obama 27%, with Edwards being the candidate of choice (44%). That gender gap doesn’t bode well if it plays out on the national level. This is such a mess.
7:10: After leading in SC by 20 points in the fall (82% Obama, 17% Clinton), Clinton bled all her support in the black female demo; they went overwhelmingly for Obama; white women split their vote between Clinton and Edwards. I think we know where the Clintons will be slinging their arrows now — Edwards. 49% of those 18-29 voted for Obama. Here is an interactive map that will show how the votes are distributed in the state (not anything on there now, but it will provide an interesting reference later.
7:00: CNN reports that Barack Obama won based on its exit polling. MSNBC has also called it as well.
The live video is below the fold.
6:50: The last Survey USA poll before the primary showed Obama up with 43%, Hillary Clinton 30%, and John Edwards 24%. On the racial split (you have to take these with a grain of salt), 18% of black respondents saying they’d vote for Hillary, with 21% of whites preferring Obama. About half of the voters in SC are black.
The last Survey USA poll before the primary showed Obama up with 43%, Hillary Clinton 30%, and John Edwards 24%. On the racial split (you have to take these with a grain of salt), 18% of black respondents saying they’d vote for Hillary, with 21% of whites preferring Obama.
Interestingly, the exit polling (via AP), reveals that two-thirds of Clinton voters said Obama attacked her unfairly and nearly as many said she attacked him unfairly. Oy.
2008 Fashion Sense
3:55: I was out most of the early afternoon, and Kate and I came in and flipped on the TV to see how the cable news channels were covering the primary, and, well, apparently issues aren’t on the agenda over at MSNBC.
Chris Jansing of MSNBC:
“What kind of message does a candidate send with what they wear?”
The fashion editor for the Washington Post, Robin Givhan:
“I think fundamentally the message is something that has to do with authenticity, comfort, confidenceand a sense that the voter can relate to the person standing there.”
It devolved from there into a discussion about the “ubiquitous Hillary Clinton pantsuit” and the “manipulation” of wardrobe. Mitt Romney’s fashion style (”polished”) was declared to be too perfect, and referenced Huckabee’s comment that Romney “looks like the guy who would lay you off.”
Boy, I feel well-informed now about the issues that matter.
6:10 Nico Pitney, The Huffington Post
6:30 Steve Rosenfeld, Alternet
6:50 Christy Hardin Smith, Firedoglake
7:00 Melody Barnes, CAP Action Fund
7:10 Joe Garofoli, San Francisco Chronicle
7:20 Anthony Palmer, The 7-10
7:40 Alisa Valdes-Rodriguez, Multiplicative Identity
8:00 Kristina Wilfore, Ballot Initiative Strategy Ctr
8:20 Oliver Willis, OliverWillis.com
8:40 Zack Exley, Revolution in Jesusland
9:00 Andrew Rasiej, Personal Democracy Forum
9:10 John Amato, Crooks & Liars
9:30 Pam Spaulding, Pam’s House Blend
26 Responses to “Obama wins - Brave New Films and The Young Turks cover the SC Primary results”
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7:40- They just declared 2nd for Hillary; what does this say to Edwards?
I do wonder what would have happened if Bill had gone to California and Hillary had stayed in SC- the numbers would heva better for her, I think.
Edwards has a hard choice to make. If he stays in, it’s pretty obvious that in Southern states, Clinton is going to be drained of support as white men abandon her for Edwards, further underscoring her weakness in that demo in November. If he leaves, then it will be interesting to see where the white male vote will go in the primaries. If she ends up the nominee, then we know she’s going to face a white man on the GOP side. How many men are ready to vote for a woman, let alone this particular one.
This election is going to tell us a great deal about biases and how they play out. The fact that it will be so public is refreshing (though painful), IMHO. Maybe people will finally admit to themselves were are still a country fractured about gender and race in a fundamental way.
Will they be ready to discuss these foibles in a constructive way? I have my doubts. I predict a lot of handwringing.
The weird thing to me is that the media are ignoring what seems to me to be a major factor in African-Americans not voting for Clinton. Clinton, in every way except voter registration, is a Republican. African-Americans generally avoid voting for Republicans based on the issues.
Yet, the media will act as if the black community rejected Clinton primarily because she is white.
OBAMA FTW!
Score!
That’s a BIG win, with Hillary in distant second!
I soooo hope he secures the nomination!
do we know for sure that Edwards is drawing votes from clinton or obama? my instinct tells me it’s from obama, but i don’t have any empirical support for that.
Cenk does not recognize Edwards’ parents? And he says he has been following the campaign?!
And the ideas Zack was talking about as if they are his own? Those are Edwards’ ideas.
Obama’s speeches leave me cold, sorry. Edwards lifts me up - he is the Elvis.
Cenk is so uncivil - let Hillary give her speech without the friggin’ nasty commentary!
I’ve actually read an article suggesting Edwards voters would be more likely to switch to Clinton. Let me find it if I can.Edwards voter here (I’m in CA, and I vote absentee) and FTR, I’d switch to Obama before I’d switch to Clinton. However, I’d vote for someone’s pet ferret before I’d vote for any Republican.
Even considering the weather last week in SC was reportedly not very good, the fact that overall Democratic turnout was ~10% higher than GOP turnout in South Carolina–SOUTH CAROLINA!!!–is amazing.
I don’t think it translates to a November win of the state, but if the state were even close then the election would probably be a given.
A tiny sliver of Democratic voters, those who are super-informed, read blogs and call themselves Progressives (and are greatly in the Edwards camp, if you look around big lefty blogs), would switch to Obama if the push comes to shove (me included). But the majority of Democratic voters, the low-information kind, will rather switch to Clinton as the analysis of Iowa, NH, Nevada (and apparently SC) results suggests. Why? I don’t know. Perhaps race is more of an issue than gender. Perhaps with Clinton they know what they get while with Obama it’s anyone’s guess. Perhaps they do not like his conservative frames, who knows?
Speaking from my own experience, my mom switched from Edwards to Clinton this past week. It seems to me the older voters are mostly for Clinton, while the younger ones are for Obama. Could be just the generation gap, could be the older folks would rather have Clinton redux than take a chance on someone unproven. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes up when/if Edwards leaves the race.
Watching the infuriating TVT:
The same people who spent years on blogs confident that Kerry was going to win are now saying that any of the three will easily win. Have they not learned anything about Republicans and the media?!
The same people who spent years on blogs analyzing every lie and dirty trick by Republicans are now thinking that Obama can get Repubs to cooperate and/or that Clinton can work with Republicans to push her agenda. Have they not learned anything about Republicans and the media?!
The same people who spent years on blogs analyzing the atrocious state of the Corporate Media are now swallowing and following the media storyline. Have they not learned anything about Republicans and the media?!
Here are the votes for Obama from non-blacks in the South Carolina primary by age:
18-29 - 52%
30-44 - 25%
45-59 - 23%
60+ - 15%
Kids are not racist, I guess.
Here are the votes by income for Edwards:
Under $15,000 - 14%
$15,000-$30,000 - 15%
$30,000-$50,000 - 16%
$50,000-$75,000 - 22%
$75,000-$100,000 - 26%
$100,000-$150,000 - 24%
$150,000-$200,000 - not enough data
$200,000 or more - 29%
Richer (and older and more educated and more white) they get, more they vote for Edwards.
Those who are hurting the most and who would most gain from an Edwards presidency are least likely to get the right information, to have enough time and energy to get informed, and the least likely to take the media with a grain of salt and look for information on their own.
BTW, Pam, I’m afraid Obama’s totals are getting lost in the sidebar ads. Or is it just my Mac?
Blue Jean, if the display is giving you trouble, all the stats are here:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21226006/
Thanks, Pam! Now I can digest all the stats to my wonkish delight.
This is a huge win for Obama and he is so good at capitalizing on victory speech time. It’s going to be damn close on Feb 5, but I’m a believer.
Edwards voter here [snip] and FTR, I’d switch to Obama before I’d switch to Clinton.
I’m gonna have to second that.
However, I’d vote for someone’s pet ferret before I’d vote for any Republican.
And can I get a RAmen to that, people! Not one of the GOP runners is worth the paper he’s printed on.
My sense based on polls and the demographics of results so far is that Edwards supporters in the north and west would split between Obama and Clinton whereas in the south they would mostly go towards Clinton. But that is just a guess based on the numbers. In SC, I was sure that he was helping Obama by staying in. On Super Tuesday, it is much harder to say, but he probably still helps Obama given the number of southern states that are voting.
Edwards carried his native Oconee County. Clinton carried Horry (Myrtle Beach).
Obama carried the rest. Damn.
Which is why I supported Barack Obama.
South Carolina is not an important state in the general election. The Republicans almost always win it, and if SC does happen to be in play, then the Republican nominee will be probably be conceding before bedtime.
What does matter is the elections down the ballot, specifically the SC House and SC Senate. If Hillary Clinton is at the top of the ticket, it’s going to be a bloodbath for the Democrats at the bottom. If Barack Obama is at the top of the ticket, we are much more likely to get the turnout we need to turn some red seats blue. We lost Senate 25 by about 150 votes in a special election last November. It’s up again in 2008. We need to win those local elections and we need someone who can turn out voters for us, not them.
IIRC, Ted Kennedy used that approach, if not those very words, to defeat Romney for re-election to the Senate. It has some basis in fact, in that Romney’s work as a business consultant did sometimes lead to layoffs.Personally, I would prefer that the guy gets defeated simply because he’s such a lying, manipulative weasel. But hey, any port in a storm.
and
Is there that much of a difference most times?
I just read somewhere (a comment on Political Punch) that Bill Clinton was asked whether Obama could win as a black candidate and the reporter added the “double teaming” part before Clinton answered, but the first part of the question was cut off, making the answer sound puzzling. Does anyone have a clip which begins prior to the “double team” part of the question? I’ve tried looking and I can only find the clip that starts with the “double team” question (in fact it starts right there, not a little earlier). It would explain a lot, I think.
Yes, one of my favorite Jon Stewart quotes came from that dark year 1998, when he was talking about the Judciary Comittee; “The Democratic side looked like America; they had the white guy, the black guy, the gay guy… The Republican side looked like every guy who ever fired my father.”