9:18: Results from SC - AP is calling it for McCain. Looks like Palmetto State residents want to win the general election more than they’d like to anoint a theocrat, but Huck’s still quite close without all the votes counted.
| South Carolina Republican Primary Results | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes | % |
| John McCain | 116,869 | 33% |
| Mike Huckabee | 103,636 | 30% |
| Fred Thompson | 56,163 | 16% |
| Mitt Romney | 53,358 | 15% |
| Ron Paul | 12,832 | 4% |
| Rudy Giuliani | 7,326 | 2% |
| Duncan Hunter | 853 | 0% |
| John Cox | 70 | 0% |
| Tom Tancredo | 70 | 0% |
| Hugh Cort | 49 | 0% |
| Neal Fendig | 20 | 0% |
Key:  WinnerPrecincts: 79% | Updated: 9:13 PM ET | Source: AP |
||
The numbers also seem to reflect the undecideds remaining torn up until they actually went in to cast their ballots. (MSNBC):
Nearly a dozen voters First Read spoke with at one polling place here said they were split on their decision of who to vote for, and many made up their minds within the past week, day or even minutes.Boy, those are some weak endorsements for their candidates of choice.“I made the decision about five minutes ago; I‘ve been thinking about it for four months,” said one man in this upper-middle-class community in the WildeWood and Polo Road precincts. “I was going to go with Romney, but decided it was McCain’s time. I just think he’s the strongest Republican candidate to beat the Democrats. His age concerns me a bit, but, in the end, I just thought he was the best one.”
“I decided in the past week,” said one woman who said she voted for Huckabee. “I have tremendous respect for him because of his Christian faith. I just feel like I know who he is.” Another woman, whose husband broke for McCain, echoed those sentiments. “He seemed the most consistent,” she said, but added, “And I am a Christian — that was a factor to some degree.”
***
Earlier: Today folks went to caucus (NV) or to the polls (SC, the Republicans only), and the results aren’t terribly surprising, but I thought I’d put a thread up and see what folks are thinking out there.
First, the Republicans in Nevada…no surprise, Mitt trounced the rest of the pack, since the state has a large Mormon population, and it went his way.
| Nevada Republican Caucus Results | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes | % |
| Mitt Romney | 21,447 | 52% |
| Ron Paul | 5,324 | 13% |
| John McCain | 5,216 | 13% |
| Fred Thompson | 3,245 | 8% |
| Mike Huckabee | 3,188 | 8% |
| Rudy Giuliani | 1,768 | 4% |
| Duncan Hunter | 809 | 2% |
| Key: Winner Precincts: 95% | Updated: 6:01 PM ET | Source: AP |
||
***Gee, look at Rudy down there cellar-dwelling yet again. Hope that Sunshine State firewall/Pat Robertson endorsement strategy’s ready to payoff, because Ron Paul is kicking his booty.
Nevada Republicans said the economy and illegal immigration were their top concerns, according to preliminary results from surveys of voters entering their caucuses. Romney led among voters who cited both issues. Mormons gave Romney about half his votes. He is hoping to become the first member of his faith to win the White House. Alone among the Republican contenders, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas aired television ads in Nevada.
The Democrats, of course, were more interesting in this contest, as the caucuses seemed pretty chaotic (CNN had cameras at the one occurring at Caesar’s Palace). At first it seemed neck and neck between Clinton and Obama, but once she pulled away by a few points, she never lost that lead.
| Nevada Democratic Caucus Results | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes * | % |
| Hillary Clinton | 5,296 | 51% |
| Barack Obama | 4,705 | 45% |
| John Edwards | 393 | 4% |
| Uncommitted | 31 | 0% |
| Dennis Kucinich | 5 | 0% |
| Joe Biden | 0 | 0% |
| Chris Dodd | 0 | 0% |
| Mike Gravel | 0 | 0% |
| Bill Richardson | 0 | 0% |
| Key: * Explainer: What are these votes? | Winner Precincts: 90% | Updated: 5:56 PM ET | Source: AP |
||
That said, this isn’t about the percentage win, it’s about the delegates, and it looks like Barack Obama may have walked away the real winner. (The Nation):
A source with knowledge of the Nevada Democratic Party’s projections told The Nation that under the arcane weighting system, Obama would win 13 national convention delegates and Clinton would win 12 delegates. The state party has not released an official count yet.It will be interesting to see how the Clinton camp spins this if Obama ends up with the win in the delegate count. All this means, in the end, is that there’s no candidate being anointed going into South Carolina.Barack Obama released an official statement celebrating a delegate victory. “We came from over twenty-five points behind to win more national convention delegates than Hillary Clinton because we performed well all across the state, including rural areas where Democrats have traditionally struggled,” he said.
One obvious question is — with Edwards’ poor showing, is whether SC will be his last practical stand. The talking heads on CNN were musing that he may stay in it through the convention, to hold his delegates and play kingmaker. That seems highly unlikely; I’d hate to see what kind of bills a campaign of this size would rack up limping to the convention. His voice is an essential contribution to the vision of where Democrats need to take the country, given he’s the most progressive voice out there. But you’d have to be blind not to notice that his effort has been hampered by the MSM’s desire to foster the Obama/Clinton horse race.
On the matter of South Carolina and the Republicans, the first thing to point out, since polls don’t close until 7PM, is that right off the bat there were serious voting machine problems in high-population areas. (AP):
In South Carolina, the economy and immigration were cited as top issues, and preliminary survey data indicated a strong turnout by evangelical voters. Survey data in both states were from polls conducted for The Associated Press and the television networks by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International. South Carolina primary voters coped with equipment difficulty and bad weather. Election officials in the area around Myrtle Beach brought out paper ballots after some electronic voting machines failed to work properly. Snow fell in the northern part of the state, which has little snow removal equipment.
Check out The BradBlog for more on the voting machine debacle in Horry County South Carolina (where Myrtle Beach and North Myrtle Beach are). Nearly all the machines failed.
One in five of the supporters of each South Carolina front-runner say they are still very likely or somewhat likely to change their mind. There is an interesting breakdown of the politics of the regions of the Palmetto State at CNN; in 2000, a third of the voters in SC were self-identified evangelicals:
The conventional wisdom, since the Tool McCain seems to be the favorite son of the MSM, is that he has to win SC to remain viable. This is pretty incredible since the media hasn’t seemed ready to declare Rudy DOA. I suppose they want to do a dance on the coffin after Florida.
My prediction is that Hollywood Fred is going down in SC. Sorry Freepi, I think your man Fred’s lethargic campaign isn’t very inspiring; he looks like he’s barely going threw the motions.
A regular reader over at my pad who works as a contractor setting up large public events in venues, and gave me the inside dope yesterday about a Huckabee event that took place in Greenville, SC at Greenville Technical College.
He called me after noon, when the event should have been in full swing, apparently there weren’t too many of the bible-beating faithful assembled there to support Huck. The campaign of the rapist/murderer-releasing Baptist minister, Christian Reconstructionist-supported, Man-On-Dog wannabe and former Arkansas governor were frantically trying to round up some kids from a local religious school to come and stand behind Huck as a backdrop of Southern Americana.
However, not long after that the auditorium was filled to standing-room-only capacity, full of the fundies, including a few holding signs that said “Vote for Huckabee, vote for the Bible.” He later went to a Columbia, SC event to schmooze with his new BFF Chuck Norris. With the bad weather, it will be interesting to see if they come out for Huck today.
26 Responses to “Nevada and South Carolina showdowns”
Leave a comment
Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>
The lower McCain places in SC, the better…I think the “electability” argument is in fact accurate just upon the independent pull he’s historically had. I’m not comfortable with him beating Huck and Fred in NV.
My understanding is that all the Repubs except Romney basically threw NV to focus on SC; by itself the LDS contingent won’t make for that kind of landslide in a state, outside of perhaps Utah. I’m surprised by Paul doing relatively well though.
Shocked by Edwards doing that badly–I prefer Obama over Clinton, and it’s a little bothersome that Edwards’ delegates are actually expected to go more towards Clinton than Obama by many analyses.
Results are going to come in pretty soon in the Palmetto state!
What I’m astounded by is just how incredibly polarized both parties are, as the candidates go from state to state, and issue to issue. There is just no common ground within either party!
Oh MAN, is Super Tuesday gonna be interesting!
John “Keating Five” McCain is highly vulnerable on corruption grounds. His age also is starting to effect his diction and making him look less vibrant.
Fred’s talking on CNN; wonder if he’s gonna bail? He’s thanking everyone, including his grandkids, his ailing momma, and the folks who travel with him- sounds like a potential swan song…
McCain is looking like he’s gonna take Huckabee.
My mom, though a Democratic convert, is still a registered Republican in FL. Should she vote for Giuliani, to give him an edge going into Super Tuesday and thus fuck things up further, or someone like Thompson or Hunter?
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/01/19/duncan_hunter_leaves_gop_field_1.html
Hunter’s gone- go for Fred, if he’s still there!
ace:
Edwards is my favorite. If he drops out before the Feb. 5 Colorado caucus I am not sure who I will support.
Of the three Obama is the most conservative and Clinton is the least electable.
I think Obama’s policies on Health Care and other domestic issues is far too conservative for my tastes. I also do not like the way he panders to the faith-based crowd.
Clinton on the other hand will rally every Republican to the polls. Whichever one of the three wins the nomination the general election will be a squeaker. I think enough Republicans hate Clinton to win it for any of the Republican candidates. Obama also will rally the haters to the polls to vote against him.
I honestly am not happy with either choice.
ace:
Edwards is my favorite. If he drops out before the Feb. 5 Colorado caucus I am not sure who I will support.
Of the three Obama is the most conservative and Clinton is the least electable.
I think Obama’s policies on Health Care and other domestic issues is far too conservative for my tastes. I also do not like the way he panders to the faith-based crowd.
Clinton on the other hand will rally every Republican to the polls. Whichever one of the three wins the nomination the general election will be a squeaker. I think enough Republicans hate Clinton to win it for any of the Republican candidates. Obama also will rally the haters to the polls to vote against him.
I honestly am not happy with either choice.
Greenville County, which is the largest and most Republican county in the state, was still out last time I checked.
McCain is strongest in the lowcountry. Coastal Republicans don’t care for the bible thumpers, they just don’t like paying taxes on their beach houses.
McCain will win, but Huckabee will get closer before the night is over.
Pamela, it doesn’t matter who wins the GOP primary, ALL of them are theocrats. One way or another, they support something that the Christofascists also support.
Thankfully, Orangeburg County (just to my north) has common sense in being the most Democratic county in SC.
Ya think someone might be bitter about Hillary winning?
Networks calling for McCain over Schmuckabee. But the best part? Willard is losing to DeadFred.
I’m sure Clinton will “spin” getting fewer delegates by pointing out that she actually got 6% more votes. It’s quite odd that NOW Obama is getting all inside baseball and claiming he really won, because those pesky votes don’t actually matter, when he was the one all week whining about the evil lawsuit and the pernicious effect of denying people their vote. I think the person whose spin we ought to be questioning here is Obama, not Clinton.
I’m sure Clinton will “spin” getting fewer delegates by pointing out that she actually got 6% more votes. It’s quite odd that NOW Obama is getting all inside baseball and claiming he really won, because those pesky votes don’t actually matter, when he was the one all week whining about the evil lawsuit and the pernicious effect of denying people their vote. I think the person whose spin we ought to be questioning here is Obama, not Clinton.
ace:
As an Edwards supporter I do not know who to support between Clinton and Obama.
To me both seem like seriously flawed candidates.
Obama is the most conservative of the three. On domestic policies he is very conservative. His health care plan is the least progressive. He spends too much effort pandering to the faith based crowd. I mean I like HOPE too but jeez can’t you throw me a progressive bone or something?
Clinton brings her own problems. The first is the obvious anti-Clinton hate. She will galvanize the right wing and do more for Republican Get-Out-The-Vote efforts than any other issue. Secondly, she appears to be the same kind of mealy mouthed Washington insider as is Gephardt, and Dodd. Not too attractive to me.
I think both Clinton and Obama are seriously flawed candidates who can easily loose to any of the GOP Clown Car contenders.
If Clinton get the nomination she will turn out the Republicans. If Obama gets the nod we can expect months of Osama/Obama flubs in the media as well as replays of the whole Madrassa/Indonesian Public School thing.
This election is going to be another squeaker. It will come down to a handful of votes in one, maybe two or three, states. Yes, I know Left Blogosphere thinks Mickey Mouse can beat this year’s Republicans. I think that Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Paul or Guiliani will give either Obama or Clinton a run for their money. I think this election is close.
Clinton will turn out the Republicans but also will not sit still for theiir smears and will throw it right back at them.
Obama may, or may not, turn out the YOUTH VOTE, but I am unsure whether he can handle the smears the Republicans will throw out at him.
Both have serious flaws and neither is a progressive.
So I do not know who I will support.
ace:
As an Edwards supporter I do not know who to support between Clinton and Obama.
To me both seem like seriously flawed candidates.
Obama is the most conservative of the three. On domestic policies he is very conservative. His health care plan is the least progressive. He spends too much effort pandering to the faith based crowd. I mean I like HOPE too but jeez can’t you throw me a progressive bone or something?
Clinton brings her own problems. The first is the obvious anti-Clinton hate. She will galvanize the right wing and do more for Republican Get-Out-The-Vote efforts than any other issue. Secondly, she appears to be the same kind of mealy mouthed Washington insider as is Gephardt, and Dodd. Not too attractive to me.
I think both Clinton and Obama are seriously flawed candidates who can easily loose to any of the GOP Clown Car contenders.
If Clinton get the nomination she will turn out the Republicans. If Obama gets the nod we can expect months of Osama/Obama flubs in the media as well as replays of the whole Madrassa/Indonesian Public School thing.
This election is going to be another squeaker. It will come down to a handful of votes in one, maybe two or three, states. Yes, I know Left Blogosphere thinks Mickey Mouse can beat this year’s Republicans. I think that Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Paul or Guiliani will give either Obama or Clinton a run for their money. I think this election is close.
Clinton will turn out the Republicans but also will not sit still for theiir smears and will throw it right back at them.
Obama may, or may not, turn out the YOUTH VOTE, but I am unsure whether he can handle the smears the Republicans will throw out at him.
Both have serious flaws and neither is a progressive.
So I do not know who I will support.
ace:
As an Edwards supporter I do not know who to support between Clinton and Obama.
To me both seem like seriously flawed candidates.
Obama is the most conservative of the three. On domestic policies he is very conservative. His health care plan is the least progressive. He spends too much effort pandering to the faith based crowd. I mean I like HOPE too but jeez can’t you throw me a progressive bone or something?
Clinton brings her own problems. The first is the obvious anti-Clinton hate. She will galvanize the right wing and do more for Republican Get-Out-The-Vote efforts than any other issue. Secondly, she appears to be the same kind of mealy mouthed Washington insider as is Gephardt, and Dodd. Not too attractive to me.
I think both Clinton and Obama are seriously flawed candidates who can easily loose to any of the GOP Clown Car contenders.
If Clinton get the nomination she will turn out the Republicans. If Obama gets the nod we can expect months of Osama/Obama flubs in the media as well as replays of the whole Madrassa/Indonesian Public School thing.
This election is going to be another squeaker. It will come down to a handful of votes in one, maybe two or three, states. Yes, I know Left Blogosphere thinks Mickey Mouse can beat this year’s Republicans. I think that Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Paul or Guiliani will give either Obama or Clinton a run for their money. I think this election is close.
Clinton will turn out the Republicans but also will not sit still for theiir smears and will throw it right back at them.
Obama may, or may not, turn out the YOUTH VOTE, but I am unsure whether he can handle the smears the Republicans will throw out at him.
Both have serious flaws and neither is a progressive.
So I do not know who I will support.
ace:
“Shocked by Edwards doing that badly–I prefer Obama over Clinton, and it’s a little bothersome that Edwards’ delegates are actually expected to go more towards Clinton than Obama by many analyses.”
As an Edwards supporter I do not know who to support between Clinton and Obama.
To me both seem like seriously flawed candidates.
Obama is the most conservative of the three. On domestic policies he is very conservative. His health care plan is the least progressive. He spends too much effort pandering to the faith based crowd. I mean I like HOPE too but jeez can’t you throw me a progressive bone or something?
Clinton brings her own problems. The first is the obvious anti-Clinton hate. She will galvanize the right wing and do more for Republican Get-Out-The-Vote efforts than any other issue. Secondly, she appears to be the same kind of mealy mouthed Washington insider as is Gephardt, and Dodd. Not too attractive to me.
I think both Clinton and Obama are seriously flawed candidates who can easily loose to any of the GOP Clown Car contenders.
If Clinton get the nomination she will turn out the Republicans. If Obama gets the nod we can expect months of Osama/Obama flubs in the media as well as replays of the whole Madrassa/Indonesian Public School thing.
This election is going to be another squeaker. It will come down to a handful of votes in one, maybe two or three, states. Yes, I know Left Blogosphere thinks Mickey Mouse can beat this year’s Republicans. I think that Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Paul or Guiliani will give either Obama or Clinton a run for their money. I think this election is close.
Clinton will turn out the Republicans but also will not sit still for theiir smears and will throw it right back at them.
Obama may, or may not, turn out the YOUTH VOTE, but I am unsure whether he can handle the smears the Republicans will throw out at him.
Both have serious flaws and neither is a progressive.
So I do not know who I will support.
On the matter of South Carolina and the Republicans, the first thing to point out, since polls don’t close until 7PM, is that right off the bat there were serious voting machine problems in high-population areas. (AP)
What can be done to ensure this does not happen in the Democratic primary?
This morning’s commentary (I was half-asleep, sorry) on NPR seemed to imply that Fred Thompson voters would switch preferentially to Huckabee than to McCain, being of the evangelical sort.
Just like in NH, Obama won more delegates than Clinton. So in reality, she hasn’t won *any* state.
Grumble.
No, Obama did not win more delegates in Nevada than Clinton.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/20/who-won-the-battle-for-democratic-delegates-in-nevada-it%E2%80%99s-complicated/
Nevada Democratic Party Chair Jill Derby said in a statement, “What was awarded today were delegates to the County Convention, of which Sen. Clinton won the majority.”
“No national convention delegates were awarded. That said, if the delegate preferences remain unchanged between now and April 2008, the calculations of national convention delegates being circulated by the Associated Press are correct.”
That estimate would give Obama a 13-to-12 edge in Nevada’s national convention delegates.
Obama still trails Clinton in the overall hunt for national convention delegates. According to a CNN survey, Clinton now leads Obama 210 to 123 in delegates overall when the preferences of party insiders known as “superdelegates” are factored in. A total of 2,025 national convention delegate votes are needed to clinch the Democratic nomination.
Right now Clinton is favorite, but I will probably vote for Obama.
Why? Between “Clinton hatred” and sexism, Hillary Clinton simply cannot win on her own. Neither is rational. I know a woman who will not vote for Hillary Clinton because she doesn’t think Hillary is a good mother because she heard somewhere that Chelsea tended to call her dad more than her mom when she needed help. When I mentioned how unfair this was to all female candidates, since men do not have to deal with this, she just talked about how Hillary must be a bad person because she has no maternal instinct. Men, even progressive men, see her as an evil bitch who must be stopped. It doesn’t matter what the truth is, (just ask John Kerry) America knows Hillary the caricature, and will not elect her.
Furthermore, even if she could win nationwide, Hillary Clinton would be a disaster down the ballot here in SC.
According to The Onion, most people will decide who to vote for based on meaningless bullshit. Meaningless bullshit is Obama’s strength and Hillary’s weakness.
As for the differences between the two of them, they are relatively minor. Clinton and Obama voted together about 90% of the time in the Senate.
As for the Republicans, I (heart) Huckabee doesn’t have a prayer, and Mulitiple-choice Mitt is the Republican John Kerry (or perhaps Michael Dukakis?). A lackluster Republican nominee could save Clinton’s campaign. However, I think the nominee will be John McCain, who will be difficult for any Democrat to beat.
That Donohue fuck sure did Marcotte a favor of forcing Edwards to abandon his campaign bloggers.
What if we do end up with another war-hungry republican like McCain? Would Americans opt to move to Canada in order to avoid his proposed “100 Years War?” I heard Canada was ramping up its immigration centers in expectation of another wave of “Blue Staters” in the event of a Republican victory: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/index.asp
In the independent film “Blue State,” the protagonist does exactly that. He decides to flee the United States after another republican victory in 2004, due to strong liberal ideals: www.bluestate.com
My apologies, the correct URL for the above mentioned film is www.bluestatemovie.com